A recurrence risk prediction model and recurrence patterns in pulmonary lymphoepithelial carcinoma based on clinical and dynamic hematologic parameters
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Key findings
• This study developed a postoperative recurrence prediction model for patients with resected pulmonary lymphoepithelial carcinoma (pLELC) by integrating clinical characteristics with dynamic hematologic parameters, which outperformed conventional tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging, and identified that patients with distant recurrence had significantly worse survival than those with locoregional recurrence.
What is known and what is new?
• Postoperative recurrence is the major barrier to long-term survival after pLELC resection; however, reliable recurrence prediction models are lacking due to the rarity of this disease.
• This study integrated clinical and dynamic hematologic parameters to construct a postoperative recurrence prediction model for pLELC that outperformed conventional TNM staging.
What is the implication, and what should change now?
• This model may improve postoperative risk stratification and guide individualized surveillance and early intervention for high-risk patients. Given significantly poorer post-recurrence survival with distant metastasis, more rigorous surveillance is recommended for patients at risk of distant recurrence.
• Future multicenter prospective studies incorporating molecular residual disease markers (e.g., Epstein-Barr virus DNA and circulating tumor DNA) are warranted to validate and refine this model. Additionally, the biological mechanisms linking platelet count and D-dimer to postoperative recurrence in pLELC require further experimental investigation.
Introduction
Pulmonary lymphoepithelial carcinoma (pLELC) is a rare subtype of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), accounting for approximately 1% of newly diagnosed lung cancers (1). Closely associated with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection, it predominantly affects young, non-smoking individuals, with higher incidence in East and Southeast Asian populations (2). Classified as squamous cell carcinoma in the 2021 World Health Organization (WHO) classification of lung tumors (3), pLELC is characterized by poorly differentiated or undifferentiated tumor cells with nest-like or diffuse syncytial growth, oval to round vesicular nuclei with prominent nucleoli, and variable lymphocytic infiltration (Figure S1). Positivity for EBV-encoded RNA (EBER) by in situ hybridization is a key diagnostic criterion (4,5). Cytokeratin staining (CK5/6, p40, and p63 positive) helps differentiate pLELC from lymphomas (non-epithelial tumors), which are cytokeratin-negative and CD45 (leukocyte common antigen)-positive. Radiologically, pLELC typically presents on chest computed tomography (CT) as a well-defined central or perihilar solid mass (6), with relatively high 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake on positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT), indicating moderate-to-high glycolytic activity (7).
For patients with resectable pLELC, radical surgical resection remains the cornerstone treatment. However, postoperative recurrence continues to significantly impact long-term survival. Overall, pLELC carries a more favorable prognosis compared to conventional lung adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma. Long-term disease control is achieved in nearly all patients with early-stage (stage I/II) disease and in approximately 85% of those with stage III disease, while even patients with metastatic disease maintain a 2-year remission rate exceeding 50% (8). In light of the excellent outcomes observed in early-stage pLELC, the accurate prediction and mitigation of recurrence risk are of paramount importance. Therefore, the development of a reliable model to predict postoperative recurrence is essential for implementing risk stratification and further improving therapeutic outcomes.
Prognostic models for predicting recurrence in resectable pLELC remain limited, as they predominantly rely on conventional clinicopathological variables such as tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, lymph node status, and tumor size. The distinct pathogenesis of pLELC, characterized by persistent EBV infection—a feature absent in typical NSCLC—suggests a potentially unique tumor microenvironment and biological behavior. Unlike most NSCLCs, pLELC harbors few classic driver mutations but exhibits prominent lymphocytic infiltration and high programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression, mirroring nasopharyngeal carcinoma and indicating a virally driven oncogenic and immune escape process (2,9). Consequently, recurrence models derived from NSCLC cohorts are likely of limited value for individualized risk assessment in resected pLELC.
Increasing evidence indicates that recurrence risk is collectively determined by the primary tumor’s characteristics, the host’s systemic status, and perioperative factors (10,11). Beyond tumor pathology, systemic parameters such as immune-inflammatory and coagulation markers provide critical prognostic insights. For example, elevated D-dimer, indicative of a hypercoagulable and hyperfibrinolytic state, is associated with adverse outcomes across various cancers (12). Concurrently, dynamic fluctuations in inflammatory and immune biomarkers—including the platelet count and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR)—may reflect ongoing immune remodeling and tumor-mediated evasion, positioning them as potential early indicators of recurrence (13,14). Furthermore, perioperative variables—such as prolonged operative time, significant blood loss, and the presence of vascular tumor emboli—can signal heightened tumor invasiveness and a pronounced surgical stress response, which are likewise implicated in promoting postoperative recurrence (15).
This study aimed to evaluate postoperative recurrence risk and prognostic outcomes in patients with resected pLELC. By incorporating dynamic hematologic parameters—such as D-dimer, platelet count, and NLR—into the analysis, we sought to develop an individualized recurrence prediction model and to characterize recurrence patterns and prognostic implications. These efforts are intended to improve postoperative surveillance and guide timely secondary interventions. We present this article in accordance with the TRIPOD reporting checklist (available at https://tlcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tlcr-2026-1-0187/rc).
Methods
Study population
This retrospective cohort study reviewed electronic medical records from The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University between August 2013 and September 2021. Patients were enrolled according to the following criteria: (I) postoperative pathological diagnosis of pLELC; (II) age between 18 and 80 years; (III) absence of locally advanced or distant metastatic disease at diagnosis; (IV) receipt of curative-intent surgical resection (R0 resection), including systematic lymph node dissection); (V) no history of other primary malignancies; and (VI) availability of complete clinical and follow-up data. Exclusion criteria were as follows: (I) a prior or synchronous primary malignancy; (II) advanced-stage pLELC; (III) receipt of palliative surgery, biopsy only, or R1/R2 resection; (IV) death within 30 days after surgery; and (V) missing essential clinical or follow-up information.
The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University (approval No. ES-2023-077). Informed consent was waived in this retrospective study.
Clinical and laboratory data collection
Comprehensive clinical and pathological data were systematically collected, including demographic variables (age, sex, smoking history, and comorbidities) and tumor-related characteristics (gross type: central or peripheral; TNM stage; and presence of vascular tumor thrombus). Treatment-related information included whether patients had received neoadjuvant therapy. Hematologic parameters included preoperative and postoperative platelet counts, D-dimer levels, tumor biomarkers, and inflammation-related indices such as the NLR, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR). Postoperative laboratory data were obtained within 14 days after surgery, and changes from baseline were calculated to reflect dynamic perioperative variations. All laboratory measurements were performed in the same institutional laboratory using standardized assays, with quality control and verification conducted by trained laboratory personnel to ensure consistency and reliability.
Follow-up and outcome definitions
Patient survival data were obtained through the hospital’s electronic medical record system and supplemented by telephone follow-up. Locoregional recurrence was defined as recurrence confined to the ipsilateral lung, bronchial stump, pleura, or regional lymph nodes (hilar, mediastinal, or supraclavicular). Distant metastasis was defined as recurrence involving the contralateral lung or any extrathoracic organs (e.g., bone, liver), and this category also included patients who presented with both locoregional and distant lesions. The primary endpoints were disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). DFS was defined as the interval from the date of surgery to the first documented recurrence or metastasis, with censoring at the date of the last follow-up for patients without recurrence. OS was defined as the interval from diagnosis to death from any cause, or censored at the last follow-up for surviving patients. A secondary endpoint, post-recurrence survival (PRS), was defined as the time from disease recurrence to death or last follow-up.
Statistical analysis
Continuous variables were compared using the independent samples t-test or Mann-Whitney U test, depending on data distribution, while categorical variables were analyzed using the χ2 test or Fisher’s exact test. Survival curves for OS and DFS were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences between groups were evaluated with the log-rank test and Breslow test. Stratified analyses were further performed according to TNM stage and recurrence pattern. Prognostic factors were first evaluated by univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Variables with statistical significance were subsequently included in a multivariate Cox regression model. A stepwise selection approach (entry/removal criterion α=0.05) was applied to avoid overfitting, and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Based on the independent prognostic factors identified through stepwise regression, a recurrence risk prediction model was developed. A forest plot was used to visualize the relative effects of the included variables, and a nomogram was constructed to provide individualized predictions of 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence probabilities. Model discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC), and compared with the traditional TNM staging system. Internal validation was performed using bootstrap resampling (1,000 iterations) to evaluate model robustness and calibration. For recurrence pattern analysis, the specific sites of recurrence were recorded in detail, and survival outcomes were compared across subgroups to explore the prognostic implications of different recurrence characteristics. All statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS software (version 26.0) and R software (version 4.2.1). All tests were two-sided, and P<0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results
Patient characteristics
Between August 2013 and September 2021, 497 patients with pathologically confirmed pLELC were initially screened. All patients were EBER‑positive by in situ hybridization. After excluding patients without follow-up at our institution (n=114), those with metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (n=23), and one patient lost to follow-up, a total of 359 patients were identified as having primary pLELC. Among them, 238 patients who underwent curative surgery were included in the final analysis, while 121 patients who received non-surgical treatment were excluded (Figure 1). The follow-up was conducted until July 1, 2023, with a median duration of 52.9 months (95% CI: 34.0–69.6). During this period, 57 patients (23.9%) experienced recurrence, while 181 (76.1%) remained disease-free. The median age of the cohort was 54 years [interquartile range (IQR): 46–62 years], with no significant difference observed between the recurrent and non-recurrent groups (52.8±10.3 vs. 53.8±11.4 years, P=0.44). Similarly, no significant intergroup differences were found in sex distribution (female: 49.2%), smoking history (21.8%), or comorbidity rates (19.3%) (all P>0.05). In contrast, central-type tumors were significantly more prevalent in the recurrence group (63.2%, 36/57) than in the recurrence-free group (35.9%, 65/181; P<0.001). The recurrence group was also associated with more advanced tumor (T) stages (P=0.03) and a significantly higher incidence of N2 lymph node metastasis (61.4% vs. 23.8%; P<0.001). Consequently, stage III disease was far more common in patients with recurrence (64.9% vs. 28.7% for stage I/II combined; P<0.001) (Table 1).
Table 1
| Characteristics | No recurrence (n=181) | Recurrence (n=57) | Overall (n=238) | P value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sex | 0.13 | |||
| Female | 84 (46.4) | 33 (57.9) | 117 (49.2) | |
| Male | 97 (53.6) | 24 (42.1) | 121 (50.8) | |
| Age, years | 53.78 [11.435] | 52.79 [10.340] | 53.55 [11.170] | 0.44 |
| T stage | 0.03 | |||
| 1 | 83 (45.9) | 11 (19.3) | 94 (39.5) | |
| 2 | 59 (32.6) | 26 (45.6) | 85 (35.7) | |
| 3 | 19 (10.5) | 8 (14.0) | 27 (11.3) | |
| 4 | 20 (11.0) | 12 (21.1) | 32 (13.4) | |
| N stage | <0.001 | |||
| 0 | 115 (63.5) | 14 (24.6) | 129 (54.2) | |
| 1 | 23 (12.7) | 8 (14.0) | 31 (13.0) | |
| 2 | 43 (23.8) | 35 (61.4) | 78 (32.8) | |
| TNM stage | <0.001 | |||
| I | 87 (48.1) | 6 (10.5) | 93 (39.1) | |
| II | 42 (23.2) | 14 (24.6) | 56 (23.5) | |
| III | 52 (28.7) | 37 (64.9) | 89 (37.4) | |
| Comorbidities | 0.44 | |||
| No | 144 (79.6) | 48 (84.2) | 192 (80.7) | |
| Yes | 37 (20.4) | 9 (15.8) | 46 (19.3) | |
| Smoking history | 0.35 | |||
| No | 144 (79.6) | 42 (73.7) | 186 (78.2) | |
| Yes | 37 (20.4) | 15 (26.3) | 52 (21.8) | |
| Family history | >0.99 | |||
| No | 177 (97.8) | 56 (98.2) | 233 (97.9) | |
| Yes | 4 (2.2) | 1 (1.8) | 5 (2.1) | |
| Clinical presentation | 0.36 | |||
| No | 92 (50.8) | 25 (43.9) | 117 (49.2) | |
| Yes | 89 (49.2) | 32 (56.1) | 121 (50.8) | |
| Gross type | <0.001 | |||
| Peripheral type | 116 (64.1) | 21 (36.8) | 137 (57.6) | |
| Central type | 65 (35.9) | 36 (63.2) | 101 (42.4) | |
Data are presented as n (%) or mean [SD]. pLELC, pulmonary lymphoepithelial carcinoma; SD, standard deviation; TNM, tumor-node-metastasis.
Survival analysis
Subsequent analysis of survival outcomes revealed a marked disparity between patients with and without recurrence. Patients with recurrence (n=57) had a median OS (mOS) of 77.4 months (95% CI: 63.9–91.0), markedly inferior to those without recurrence (n=181), who did not reach mOS (mean: 99.0 months; 95% CI: 96.0–102.1, P<0.001) (Figure 2). To determine whether tumor recurrence was an independent prognostic factor, we performed a Cox regression analysis. Univariate Cox proportional hazards analysis identified several significant predictors of shorter OS, including older age (P=0.007), stage III disease (vs. stage I, P=0.01), presence of comorbidities (P=0.02), central-type gross morphology (P=0.007), and tumor recurrence (P<0.001) (Table 2). After multivariate adjustment, age (HR =1.07, 95% CI: 1.03–1.12, P=0.002), central-type gross morphology (HR =2.51, 95% CI: 1.01–6.22, P=0.047), and tumor recurrence (HR =9.24, 95% CI: 5.76–14.82, P<0.001) remained independent prognostic factors for OS (Table 2).
Table 2
| Variables | Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | 95% CI | P value | HR | 95% CI | P value | ||
| Age | 1.05 | 1.02–1.09 | 0.007 | 1.07 | 1.03–1.12 | 0.002 | |
| Sex | |||||||
| Female | 1.00 | ||||||
| Male | 0.97 | 0.46–2.07 | 0.95 | ||||
| TNM stage | 0.02 | 0.81 | |||||
| I | 1.00 | ||||||
| II | 1.72 | 0.46–6.45 | 0.42 | 0.81 | 0.19–0.42 | 0.78 | |
| III | 4.11 | 1.39–12.18 | 0.01 | 0.64 | 0.16–2.54 | 0.53 | |
| Comorbidities | 2.56 | 1.14–5.75 | 0.02 | 1.59 | 0.65–3.88 | 0.31 | |
| Smoking history | 1.22 | 0.53–2.79 | 0.64 | ||||
| Family history† | 0.05 | 0.00–17186.90 | 0.64 | ||||
| Clinical presentation | 0.86 | 0.40–1.84 | 0.69 | ||||
| Recurrence | 11.96 | 4.53–31.60 | <0.001 | 9.24 | 5.76–14.82 | <0.001 | |
| Gross type | |||||||
| Peripheral type | 1.00 | ||||||
| Central type | 3.31 | 1.40–7.89 | 0.007 | 2.51 | 1.01–6.22 | 0.047 | |
†, family history showed an extremely wide CI due to sparse events, indicating unstable estimates. CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; OS, overall survival; pLELC, pulmonary lymphoepithelial carcinoma; TNM, tumor-node-metastasis.
Recurrence risk analysis and model construction
Given that recurrence was identified as the most critical determinant of OS in patients with pLELC, we further investigated factors associated with recurrence risk to construct a predictive model for DFS. Univariate Cox regression analysis identified several factors significantly associated with shorter DFS. These included advanced TNM stage (stage II: HR =3.99, 95% CI: 1.53–10.39, P=0.005; stage III: HR =7.31, 95% CI: 3.08–17.32, P<0.001), central-type tumor morphology (HR =2.57, 95% CI: 1.50–4.41, P=0.001, the presence of tumor thrombus (HR =2.44, 95% CI: 1.30–4.57, P=0.006), elevated initial D-dimer level (HR =1.01, 95% CI: 1.00–1.01, P<0.001), elevated PLR (HR =1.01, 95% CI: 1.00–1.01, P=0.03), elevated postoperative NLR (HR =1.24, 95% CI: 1.05–1.46, P=0.01), cancer antigen 125 (CA125) (HR =1.02, 95% CI: 1.01–1.04, P=0.001), CA153 (HR =1.03, 95% CI: 1.01–1.07, P=0.04), and longer operative duration (HR =1.01, 95% CI: 1.01–1.01, P=0.005). In contrast, no significant association with DFS was observed for age, smoking history, comorbidities, family history, tracheal infiltration, pleural invasion, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), initial NLR, postoperative platelet count (all P>0.05) (Table 3).
Table 3
| Variables | HR | 95% CI | P value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sex | 0.22 | ||
| Male | 0.72 | 0.42–1.22 | |
| Female | 1.00 | ||
| Age | 0.99 | 0.97–1.02 | 0.55 |
| Smoking history | 0.42 | ||
| Yes | 1.27 | 0.71–2.30 | |
| No | 1.00 | ||
| Comorbidities | 0.55 | ||
| Yes | 0.81 | 0.34–1.65 | |
| No | 1.00 | ||
| Family history | 0.91 | ||
| Yes | 0.89 | 0.12–6.43 | |
| No | 1.00 | ||
| TNM stage | <0.001 | ||
| I | 1.00 | ||
| II | 3.99 | 1.53–10.39 | 0.005 |
| III | 7.31 | 3.08–17.32 | <0.001 |
| Gross type | 0.001 | ||
| Central type | 2.57 | 1.50–4.41 | |
| Peripheral type | 1.00 | ||
| Tracheal infiltration | 0.17 | ||
| Yes | 1.52 | 0.83–2.78 | |
| No | 1.00 | ||
| Pleural invasion | 0.34 | ||
| Yes | 1.29 | 0.76–2.18 | |
| No | 1.00 | ||
| Tumor thrombus | 0.006 | ||
| Positive | 2.44 | 1.30–4.57 | |
| Negative | 1.00 | ||
| Operative duration | 1.01 | 1.01–1.01 | 0.005 |
| Blood loss | 1.00 | 1.01–1.01 | 0.12 |
| Initial D-dimer level | 1.01 | 1.00–1.01 | <0.001 |
| Postoperative D-dimer level | 1.11 | 1.01–1.24 | 0.048 |
| ΔD-dimer† | 1.09 | 0.97–1.22 | 0.17 |
| Initial platelet count | 1.00 | 1.01–1.01 | <0.001 |
| Postoperative platelet count | 1.00 | 0.99–1.01 | 0.20 |
| ΔPlatelet† | 0.99 | 0.99–0.99 | 0.001 |
| CEA‡ | 1.00 | 0.96–1.04 | 0.88 |
| CA125‡ | 1.02 | 1.01–1.04 | 0.001 |
| CA153‡ | 1.03 | 1.01–1.07 | 0.04 |
| NLR‡ | 1.02 | 0.97–1.08 | 0.46 |
| ΔNLR† | 1.24 | 1.05–1.46 | 0.01 |
| PLR‡ | 1.01 | 1.00–1.01 | 0.03 |
| ΔPLR† | 2.33 | 1.25–4.35 | 0.008 |
†, postoperative value minus initial diagnosis value. ‡, at initial diagnosis (baseline value). CA125, cancer antigen 125; CA153, cancer antigen 153; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; CI, confidence interval; DFS, disease-free survival; HR, hazard ratio; NLR, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; pLELC, pulmonary lymphoepithelial carcinoma; PLR, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio; TNM, tumor-node-metastasis.
In the multivariate Cox regression (Table S1), 13 variables were entered with only 57 recurrence events, yielding the events-per-variable (EPV) ratio below 10 and suggesting a possible risk of overfitting. To mitigate this risk, a stepwise selection procedure (α=0.05) was employed. This approach identified five independent prognostic factors for recurrence: central-type tumor (HR =2.41, 95% CI: 1.40–4.16, P=0.002), preoperative D-dimer level (HR =1.001, 95% CI: 1.0001–1.001, P=0.01), the difference between postoperative and preoperative platelet (HR =1.005, 95% CI: 1.001–1.009, P=0.008), N stage (HR =1.66, 95% CI: 1.33–2.07, P<0.001), and elevated NLR (HR =1.198, 95% CI: 1.02–1.41, P=0.03). Based on the factors retained through stepwise selection, a nomogram was subsequently constructed to facilitate individualized recurrence-risk estimation (Figure 3A). The recurrence risk prediction model, constructed with selected variables, demonstrated superior discriminatory performance at all evaluated time points in the training cohort compared to the conventional TNM staging system. Specifically, the model achieved AUCs of 0.822, 0.792, and 0.744 for 1-, 3-, and 5-year predictions, respectively, outperforming the TNM system (AUCs: 0.644, 0.705, and 0.665). Internal validation with 1,000 bootstrap resamples confirmed model robustness. The bootstrap-corrected concordance index (C-index) was 0.752 (original C-index: 0.771), with an estimated optimism of 0.038. Despite a slight decrease, the corrected C-index remained above 0.7, indicating a robust discriminative ability for recurrence risk prediction (Figure 3B-3D).
Recurrence pattern and survival analysis
Following the establishment of the recurrence-prediction model, we further explored recurrence patterns and their prognostic implications, with a focus on comparing locoregional and distant relapse. Among all patients with recurrent pLELC, the median DFS was 21.8 months (IQR: 11.1–36.2 months) (Figure 4A). Of these, 50 patients had complete data on recurrence sites and were included in the pattern analysis. The distribution of recurrence sites revealed that regional lymph node recurrence was the most common (76.0%), comprising single-node (34.0%) and multiple-node (42.0%) involvement. Other recurrence sites included ipsilateral pulmonary (34.0%), bone (26.0%), pleural (18.0%), liver (16.0%), and contralateral pulmonary (12.0%) (Figure 4B). It should be noted that the percentages for distant sites sum to over 100% as some patients had multiple metastatic sites. The median DFS was comparable between the locoregional (21.2 months, IQR: 11.0–32 months) and distant recurrence groups (20.5 months, IQR: 8.6–41.4 months) (Figure 4A). Kaplan-Meier analysis confirmed no significant difference in DFS between the two groups (log-rank test, P=0.32) (Figure 4C). Similarly, OS also showed no significant difference between the groups (P=0.07), although a trend toward shorter OS was observed in the distant metastasis group (Figure 4D). In contrast, a significant difference was observed in PRS. The median PRS for patients with distant metastasis was 53.5 months (95% CI: 28.3–78.7 months), which was significantly shorter than that of the locoregional recurrence group, in which the median PRS was not reached (P=0.04) (Figure 4E). However, comparisons of DFS, PRS, or OS among these different recurrence sites (e.g., lymph node vs. pulmonary vs. bone) revealed no statistically significant differences.
Discussion
In this study, recurrence was identified as an independent prognostic factor for OS in patients with pLELC who underwent radical resection, emphasizing the critical importance of identifying and managing patients at high risk of recurrence to achieve better long-term outcomes. We further developed a recurrence prediction model that integrated clinical characteristics with dynamic hematological markers, demonstrating that N stage, central tumor location, elevated preoperative D-dimer levels, postoperative increases in platelet count, and postoperative NLR were independent predictors of recurrence. The proposed model showed superior predictive performance compared with the conventional TNM staging system, supporting its potential clinical utility. In addition, we delineated the recurrence landscape of pLELC: locoregional relapse and distant metastasis occurred with similar frequency and comparable DFS, whereas distant metastasis was associated with significantly shorter PRS, indicating a markedly worse prognosis. Lymph node relapse and intrathoracic spread were the predominant recurrence patterns observed in this cohort. These findings not only refine risk stratification in postoperative pLELC, but also provide guidance for tailoring surveillance strategies and prioritizing patients who may benefit from intensified systemic monitoring.
Our findings indicate that while TNM staging was significantly associated with OS in univariate analysis, only recurrence retained independent prognostic significance in multivariate Cox regression. This suggests that the impact of TNM stage on OS may be mediated predominantly via the risk of postoperative recurrence. Patients with higher stage disease often carry greater tumor burden and increased nodal metastasis, which predispose to recurrence after surgery and consequently shorten OS (16). Previous studies have shown that greater tumor burden and the presence of lymph-node micrometastases are significantly correlated with both DFS and OS in lung cancer patients (17,18). Such evidence not only supplements prior research in squamous cell lung carcinoma and pLELC, but also highlights the critical role of recurrence in this tumor subtype (19). Recurrence, as an independent adverse prognostic factor in pLELC, not only signals disease progression but also reflects incomplete eradication of tumor clones by initial definitive treatment. Prospective studies should incorporate more sensitive measures—such as minimal residual disease (MRD) or circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)—or more detailed pathological assessments to improve postoperative risk stratification.
The hematologic indicators included in our prediction model are biologically plausible (20,21). Elevated D-dimer levels reflect activation of the coagulation-fibrinolysis axis, which facilitates tumor dissemination (12,22). Perioperative increases in platelet count may indicate a pro-metastatic microenvironment, as platelets facilitate epithelial-mesenchymal transition and protect circulating tumor cells from immune clearance (13). An elevated postoperative NLR suggests a systemic inflammatory state and impaired anti-tumor immunity, which have been repeatedly associated with inferior outcomes in lung cancer (14,23,24). Classical pathological features such as advanced nodal stage and central tumor location may also reflect higher tumor burden or technical constraints in surgical clearance, increasing the likelihood of residual microscopic disease that subsequently leads to recurrence (25). Unlike models relying solely on static clinical or radiologic variables, our approach integrates perioperative hematologic parameters reflecting real-time alterations, thereby enabling more individualized recurrence-risk stratification (26,27). The model demonstrated strong discrimination outperforming the conventional TNM staging system. Importantly, these hematologic indicators are inexpensive, widely available, and feasible for longitudinal monitoring, supporting their utility in postoperative surveillance. Traditional pathological variables such as tumor differentiation were not included in the final model. However, this is unlikely to compromise performance given the limited heterogeneity of differentiation in pLELC and the inconsistent evidence supporting its prognostic value in prior literature (28). Overall, these findings underscore the value of incorporating dynamic hematologic markers into recurrence prediction for pLELC.
In this study, the median DFS among 57 patients who experienced postoperative recurrence of pLELC was 21.8 months (IQR 11.1–36.2 months), indicating that recurrence tends to occur later and more heterogeneously than in typical NSCLC (29,30). The lymphocyte-rich stroma and favorable immune microenvironment of pLELC may delay tumor immune escape and metastatic dissemination (28). Late recurrence in some patients highlights the need for extended and individualized follow-up. The recurrence of pLELC was predominantly locoregional, whereas conventional squamous cell carcinoma usually relapses distantly, predominantly to bone and liver (31). Meanwhile, nasopharyngeal carcinoma—another EBV-related malignancy—mainly exhibits delayed locoregional relapse (32). Thus, pLELC appears to exhibit an intermediate recurrence pattern between nasopharyngeal carcinoma and NSCLC, reflecting its unique EBV-driven biology (28,33). Variations in stage and treatment across studies may contribute to inconsistent findings, emphasizing the need for multicenter standardized analyses. In our cohort, DFS did not significantly differ between local and distant recurrence, and OS showed only a nonsignificant trend toward poorer outcomes in patients with distant metastasis (P=0.07). However, PRS was significantly shorter in the distant metastasis group (P=0.04). This finding suggests that distant recurrence reflects a more aggressive tumor biology with limited responsiveness to local salvage therapy, underscoring the importance of early identification and surveillance of patients at risk for distant spread.
This study has several limitations. First, it was a single-center retrospective analysis with a limited sample size and relatively few recurrence events, which may have led to an underestimation of the effects of certain prognostic variables. Although stepwise regression and internal validation enhanced the robustness of our model, external validation and prospective studies are still required to confirm its generalizability. Second, hematologic biomarkers are influenced by multiple perioperative and individual factors, such as infection or surgical stress, and the causal relationship between these biomarkers and recurrence risk remains to be clarified through mechanistic and functional studies. Subsequently, although the Cox proportional hazards model was adopted in this study due to its widespread use in prognostic modeling and its ability to generate individualized risk predictions through estimation of baseline survival functions, it does not assume a specific underlying survival distribution. Compared with parametric survival models, this may limit its performance in scenarios requiring precise estimation of absolute event times or long-term extrapolation. Future studies may incorporate parametric approaches, such as exponential or Weibull models, to further improve the accuracy of absolute survival time prediction. Finally, although EBV DNA has been established as an important prognostic biomarker for pLELC, its detection rate among surgical patients was low, and longitudinal postoperative monitoring was lacking. Future studies integrating MRD indicators such as EBV DNA and ctDNA, and validating the model in large, multicenter prospective cohorts, are warranted to further enhance its clinical applicability.
Conclusions
In summary, this study innovatively developed a postoperative recurrence-prediction model for pLELC by integrating clinical characteristics with dynamic hematologic parameters. The model demonstrated superior predictive performance compared with the conventional TNM staging system, enabling more accurate identification of patients at high risk of recurrence and providing a practical tool for individualized surveillance and early intervention. Owing to its strong clinical interpretability and reliance on readily available laboratory indicators, the model offers excellent accessibility and translational potential in real-world settings. Moreover, our analysis of recurrence patterns revealed that patients with distant metastasis had worse survival outcomes than those with locoregional relapse, highlighting the biological heterogeneity of recurrence in pLELC. Future multicenter prospective studies incorporating molecular residual disease markers such as EBV DNA and ctDNA are warranted to further enhance the robustness and clinical applicability of the model.
Acknowledgments
None.
Footnote
Reporting Checklist: The authors have completed the TRIPOD reporting checklist. Available at https://tlcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tlcr-2026-1-0187/rc
Data Sharing Statement: Available at https://tlcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tlcr-2026-1-0187/dss
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Funding: This work was supported by grants from
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Ethical Statement: The authors are accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved. The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University (approval No. ES-2023-077). Informed consent was waived in this retrospective study.
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