Air pollution, driver mutations, and survival in non-small cell lung cancer: insights from a high-altitude Hispanic cohort
Highlight box
Key findings
• Long-term exposures to PM2.5 and PM10 were independently associated with higher odds of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations in Hispanic non-small cell lung cancer patients from Bogotá.
• NO2 exposure correlated with increased programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression, suggesting pollutant-driven modulation of the tumor immune microenvironment.
• Exposure to PM2.5 and SO2 was significantly associated with decreased overall survival.
What is known and what is new?
• Ambient air pollution, particularly PM2.5 and NO2, has been linked to increased lung cancer risk and mortality. EGFR mutations are frequent among never-smokers and are more prevalent in Hispanic and Asian populations.
• This study is among the first in a Latin American, high-altitude Hispanic cohort to show quantified associations between specific pollutants and tumor molecular drivers (EGFR, PD-L1), as well as survival outcomes. Bogotá’s unique context—marked by substantial intra-urban variability and altitude >2,600 m—enabled high-resolution exposure assessment that strengthens these associations.
What is the implication, and what should change now?
• Air pollution not only contributes to lung cancer incidence but also influences its molecular profile and prognosis. This study informs public health policies aimed at reducing PM2.5 and SO2 emissions in Latin American cities.
• It can be useful to incorporate environmental exposure into lung cancer risk stratification and prognostic models.
• It is necessary to promote molecular-epidemiologic studies in admixed populations to validate and expand these findings.
Introduction
Lung cancer remains one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortality worldwide, and the impact on individuals who have never smoked is becoming increasingly recognized (1). In fact, lung cancer in never-smokers is the seventh leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide (2). It is estimated that around a quarter of lung cancer cases worldwide occur in individuals who have never smoked (3). While the exact burden in Latin America is not fully quantified, regional cancer registries report nearly 100,000 new lung cancer cases annually, suggesting that lung cancer in never-smokers represents a substantial—and likely under-recognized—proportion of the regional incidence (4-6). These tumors display a distinct demographic and biological profile, arising more often in younger women, presenting predominantly as adenocarcinomas, and carrying a higher frequency of actionable driver mutations such as epidermal growth factor receptor mutations (EGFRm) and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangement (7). Most lung cancers in never-smokers are classified as non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), highlighting the importance of studying this subgroup where environmental exposures, molecular alterations, and therapeutic opportunities converge (2).
Among non-tobacco determinants, air pollution has emerged as a critical driver of lung carcinogenesis. In 2021, an estimated 19% of lung cancer deaths worldwide were attributable to ambient pollution (8), positioning it as the second leading risk factor for respiratory disease after smoking. Particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) and gaseous pollutants (NO2, SO2, O3, CO) have been linked to increased lung cancer incidence and mortality. Exposure to these pollutants induces chronic airway inflammation, oxidative stress, and impaired DNA repair, while also promoting epigenetic alterations and immune dysregulation (9-14). The pulmonary epithelium, continuously exposed to inhaled substances, is particularly vulnerable to these hazards, which may either initiate malignant transformation or accelerate the progression of pre-existing oncogenic clones. Recent experimental studies reinforce this plausibility: PM2.5 exposure enhances the oncogenic potential of EGFR-mutant alveolar cells through interleukin-1 beta (IL-1β)-mediated macrophage inflammation, suggesting that air pollutants act not only as initiators but as active promoters of oncogenesis (15-18).
The role of air pollution in lung carcinogenesis is particularly relevant in low- and middle-income countries, where the threshold recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for air pollutants is frequently exceeded (19). For instance, over 90% of the population in Latin American cities live in areas with PM2.5 levels above the WHO’s annual average guideline value of 10 µg/m3 (19), and over 85% live in areas with NO2 levels above this value (20). In Colombia, median annual concentrations of PM2.5 range between 8–18 µg/m3, with Bogotá consistently among the most polluted urban centers (21). Notably, the city is located 2,640 meters above sea level, where chronic hypobaric hypoxia increases tidal volume and minute ventilation, facilitating deeper penetration of pollutants into distal airways (22). This unique setting, coupled with marked intraurban variability and strong socioeconomic gradients in exposure, creates a compounded biological and public health risk. While ecological studies in Colombia have linked pollution to cardiorespiratory mortality and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations (21,23), its role in lung cancer incidence, molecular characteristics, and prognosis remains largely unexplored.
Despite a growing body of evidence from North America, Europe, and Asia, the relationship between air pollution and driver mutations in lung cancer remains under-characterized in Hispanic populations. This study presents a retrospective cohort analysis of Hispanic patients with NSCLC treated in Bogotá, Colombia, between 2015 and 2022. Using high-resolution geospatial modelling, we estimated long-term exposure to PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, O3, and CO, and assessed their association with molecular features [EGFR mutations, ALK rearrangements, programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression] and overall survival (OS). By integrating environmental and clinical data, our study addresses a significant knowledge gap with direct clinical implications: characterizing pollutant-specific associations with oncogenic drivers and immune biomarkers may inform the use of targeted therapies, optimize patient selection for immunotherapy, and support strategies for early detection and improved survival. At the population level, this knowledge provides one of the first molecular epidemiologic characterizations of pollution-related lung cancer in a high-altitude Latin American setting and offers valuable insights for guiding regulatory policy, reducing exposure, and addressing inequities in access to care. We present this article in accordance with the STROBE reporting checklist (available at https://tlcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tlcr-2025-1-1334/rc).
Methods
Study design
A retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the association between air pollutants and the presence of EGFRm, ALK alterations, PD-L1 expression, and OS at Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá, a fourth level of complexity referral center in Bogotá, Colombia between 2015 and 2022. Eligible participants were individuals of at least 18 years of age residing in Bogotá, with biopsy-confirmed NSCLC who underwent basic molecular profiling. Exclusion criteria comprised patients who died during the diagnostic process, and those lacking molecular profiling data. The study was conducted in accordance with national legislation and international ethical standards, adhering to guidelines from the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments, the Singapore Statement on Research Integrity, and the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS). The study was approved by the Corporate Research Ethics Committee of the Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá (CCEI-17773-2025, May 13, 2025). No informed consent was required due to the minimal risk classification of this research. The Institutional Ethics Committee authorized a waiver for this document.
Variables and measurements
Clinical and molecular variables collected included: age, sex, smoking status (smoker vs. non-smoker), stage of cancer (I, II, III, IV), family history of lung cancer (yes/no), and treatment received (immunotherapy, chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and radiosurgery). Molecular data included EGFR mutations, ALK rearrangements, and PD-L1 expressions. EGFR mutations were assessed using the Cobas® EGFR Mutation Test v2 (Roche Diagnostics) while ALK rearrangements were detected by immunohistochemistry (IHC) using the D5F3 antibody clone. PD-L1 expression was evaluated by 22C3 or SP263 clones.
Environmental pollutant data, including PM2.5, PM10, NO2, O3, CO, and SO2, were retrieved from the Bogotá Air Quality Monitoring Network (RMCAB; http://rmcab.ambientebogota.gov.co/home/map). Daily and annual averages of each pollutant were computed, utilizing records meeting a minimum temporal representativeness threshold of ≥75% completeness. For each patient, individual pollutant exposure was calculated as the average concentration during the 5 years preceding their NSCLC diagnosis, using inverse distance weighted regression based on daily air quality data linked to the geographic coordinates of residential addresses and monitoring stations. Two distinct circular buffer zones (5 km and 10 km radius) facilitated this spatial interpolation. Exposure levels were analyzed both continuously and categorically, applying the annual WHO 2021 air quality guidelines as categorical cut-off points: 5 µg/m3 for PM2.5 and 25 µg/m3 for NO2 (24).
Statistical analysis
Demographic and clinical characteristics of the cohort were summarized with descriptive statistics. Continuous variables were summarized as mean and standard deviation or median and interquartile range (IQR), while categorical variables were reported as absolute and relative frequencies. Logistic regression modeling was employed to assess associations between specific NSCLC alterations (EGFR, ALK, PD-L1) and exposure to air pollutants, adjusting for age, sex, and smoking status. Model performance was validated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and analysis of residuals. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to visualize OS. Subsequently, Cox proportional hazards models were applied to investigate associations between lung cancer mortality and pollutant exposure (both continuous and categorical), adjusting for sociodemographic (age, sex), clinical (cancer stage, EGFR status, ALK status, PD-L1 expression, family history of lung cancer, and smoking history), and treatment-related covariates. Model adequacy was verified using Schoenfeld residuals and global tests for proportionality assumptions. Selection of final models considered the lowest Akaike Information Criterion, alongside biological plausibility and clinical relevance. Statistical significance was defined as P<0.05. All analyses were conducted using R Studio software, version 4.4.2 (2024-10-31 ucrt).
Results
Descriptive analysis
Table 1 summarizes the baseline characteristics of the 205 patients included in this study. The cohort was predominantly female (60.0%), with a mean age of 66±12.7 years. Most patients presented with advanced-stage disease at diagnosis, with 77.5% classified as stage III or IV. Surgical management, either with palliative or curative intent, was documented in 17% of the cohort, while other therapeutic modalities such as systemic therapy or radiotherapy exhibited greater utilization.
Table 1
| Variable | Total (N=205) | Survivors (N=72) | Deaths (N=133) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sex | |||
| Female | 123 (60.0) | 44 (61.1) | 79 (59.4) |
| Male | 82 (40.0) | 28 (38.9) | 54 (40.6) |
| Age (years) | 66.1 (64.3, 67.8) | 66.6 (63.8, 69.4) | 65.8 (63.5, 68.0) |
| Stage of cancer | |||
| I | 29 (14.2) | 20 (27.8) | 9 (6.8) |
| II | 17 (8.3) | 11 (15.3) | 6 (4.5) |
| III | 31 (15.1) | 11 (15.3) | 20 (15.0) |
| IV | 128 (62.4) | 30 (41.6) | 98 (73.7) |
| Smoker status | |||
| No | 94 (45.9) | 39 (54.2) | 55 (41.4) |
| Yes | 111 (54.1) | 33 (45.8) | 78 (58.6) |
| Family history of lung cancer | |||
| No | 189 (92.2) | 67 (93.1) | 122 (91.7) |
| Yes | 16 (7.8) | 5 (6.9) | 11 (8.3) |
| Immunotherapy | |||
| No | 98 (47.8) | 40 (55.6) | 58 (43.6) |
| Yes | 107 (52.2) | 32 (44.4) | 75 (56.4) |
| Chemotherapy | |||
| No | 118 (57.6) | 47 (65.3) | 71 (53.4) |
| Yes | 87 (42.4) | 25 (34.7) | 62 (46.6) |
| Surgery | |||
| No | 171 (83.4) | 54 (75.0) | 117 (88.0) |
| Yes | 34 (16.6) | 18 (25.0) | 16 (12.0) |
| Radiotherapy | |||
| No | 162 (79.0) | 60 (83.3) | 102 (76.7) |
| Yes | 43 (21.0) | 12 (16.7) | 31 (23.3) |
| Radiosurgery | |||
| No | 192 (93.7) | 69 (95.8) | 123 (92.5) |
| Yes | 13 (6.3) | 3 (4.2) | 10 (7.5) |
| EGFR mutations | |||
| No | 147/204 (72.1) | 47/72 (65.3) | 100/133 (75.8) |
| Yes | 57/204 (27.9) | 25/72 (34.7) | 32/133 (24.2) |
| ALK rearrangements | |||
| No | 180 (87.8) | 63 (87.5) | 117 (88.0) |
| Yes | 25 (12.2) | 9 (12.5) | 16 (12.0) |
| PD-L1 expression | |||
| No | 109 (53.2) | 40 (55.6) | 69 (51.9) |
| Yes | 96 (46.8) | 32 (44.4) | 64 (48.1) |
| Air pollutants annual mean concentration | |||
| PM2.5, µg/m3 | 15.9 (15.4, 16.3) | 15.6 (15.0, 16.2) | 16.0 (15.4, 16.6) |
| PM10, µg/m3 | 32.6 (31.6, 33.6) | 31.5 (29.9, 33.0) | 33.2 (31.9, 34.5) |
| SO2, µg/m3 | 4.6 (4.1, 5.1) | 4.0 (3.6, 4.4) | 5.0 (4.3, 5.8) |
| NO2, µg/m3 | 28.3 (27.7, 28.8) | 27.9 (27.1, 28.7) | 28.5 (27.7, 29.3) |
| O3, µg/m3 | 26.7 (26.2, 27.3) | 26.6 (25.9, 27.4) | 26.8 (26.1, 27.5) |
| CO, µg/m3 | 76.3 (74.5, 78.1) | 75.8 (72.8, 78.9) | 76.5 (74.3, 78.7) |
Data are presented as n (%) or mean (95% confidence interval). Participant numbers might not sum to the total group size due to missing data. ALK, anaplastic lymphoma kinase; EGFR, epidermal growth factor receptor; PD-L1, programmed death-ligand 1; PM, particulate matter.
Mean annual exposure to air pollutants during the five years preceding NSCLC diagnosis consistently exceeded the WHO safety thresholds. The annual mean concentration of PM2.5 was 15.9 µg/m3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 15.4–16.3], PM10 was 32.6 µg/m3 (95% CI: 31.6–33.6), and NO2 was 28.3 µg/m3 (95% CI: 27.7–28.8). The mean O3 concentration was 26.7 µg/m3 (95% CI: 26.2–27.3), while CO and SO2 registered mean values of 76.3 µg/m3 (95% CI: 74.5–78.1) and 4.63 µg/m3 (95% CI: 4.14–5.12), respectively. Figure 1 illustrates the spatial distribution of air pollutant concentrations across Bogotá, highlighting the variability in exposure based on patients’ circular buffers.
Regarding molecular alterations, 57 patients (27.9%) carried EGFR mutations. The most frequent was exon 19 deletion (n=30, 58.8%), followed by the L858R mutation (n=14, 27.5%). Exon 20 insertions were identified in 5 patients (9.8%), and less common sensitizing mutations, such as L861Q and G719X, were found in 1 patient each (2.0%). ALK rearrangements were detected in 25 patients (12.2%) by IHC with the D5F3 clone. PD-L1 expression with tumor proportion score (TPS) ≥1% was observed in 96 patients (46.8%), while TPS ≥50% was detected in 11 patients (5.4%).
Logistic regression analysis
Table 2 shows the results of logistic regression analysis examining the effects of EGFR, ALK, and PD-L1 mutation type according to exposure to air pollutants. Higher exposure to particulate matter was significantly associated with the presence of EGFR mutations. Each 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.49 (95% CI: 1.11–6.41), and each 10 µg/m3 increase in PM10 with an OR of 1.54 (95% CI: 1.05–2.34).
Table 2
| Variables | EGFR (N=204)† | ALK (N=205)† | PD-L1 (N=205)† | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR | 95% CI | P value | OR | 95% CI | P value | OR | 95% CI | P value | |||
| PM2.5, µg/m3 | 2.49 | 1.11–6.41 | 0.04 | 0.77 | 0.31–1.90 | 0.57 | 1.31 | 0.66–2.67 | 0.44 | ||
| PM10, µg/m3 | 1.54 | 1.05–2.34 | 0.03 | 1.08 | 0.69–1.73 | 0.74 | 0.93 | 0.67–1.30 | 0.69 | ||
| SO2, µg/m3 | 1.57 | 0.64–3.96 | 0.32 | 0.16 | 0.02–0.97 | 0.08 | 1.39 | 0.62–3.42 | 0.44 | ||
| NO2, µg/m3 | 1.26 | 0.90–1.83 | 0.20 | 0.76 | 0.53–1.12 | 0.15 | 1.83 | 1.33–2.65 | <0.001 | ||
| O3, µg/m3 | 1.27 | 0.72–2.42 | 0.44 | 2.47 | 1.00–7.20 | 0.08 | 0.82 | 0.46–1.46 | 0.49 | ||
| CO, µg/m3 | 1.01 | 0.97–1.02 | 0.88 | 0.93 | 0.89–0.97 | 0.005 | 0.99 | 0.97–1.01 | 0.45 | ||
†, logistic regression models adjusted by age, sex, and smoking status. ALK, anaplastic lymphoma kinase; CI, confidence interval; EGFR, epidermal growth factor receptor; OR, odds ratio; PD-L1, programmed death-ligand 1; PM, particulate matter.
Air pollutant exposures were not associated with ALK rearrangements, except for CO exposure. Among the biomarkers, PD-L1 expression was significantly associated with NO2 exposure. Each 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2 corresponded to an OR of 1.83 (95% CI: 1.33–2.65; P<0.001). No other pollutant showed significant associations with PD-L1 expression after adjustment (Table 2).
Most logistic regression models demonstrated adequate fit, with no major deviations between predicted and observed outcomes. The only exception was the EGFR model including PM10, which showed a lack of fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2=21.17, P=0.007), suggesting potential model misspecification. For all other models, Hosmer-Lemeshow P values exceeded 0.05, supporting their robustness in assessing biomarker-pollution associations.
Survival analysis
The median OS for the cohort was 31 months (95% CI: 27.6–37.2). Survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years were 72.1%, 43.0%, and 29.0%, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curves are presented in Figure 2.
Cox proportional hazards analysis
Table 3 shows a full summary of results of Cox proportional hazard analysis. In adjusted models, higher exposure to PM2.5 and SO2 emerged as significant predictors of increased mortality risk. Each 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.72 (95% CI: 1.04–2.84; P=0.04), while each 10 µg/m3 increase in SO2 corresponded to an HR of 1.69 (95% CI: 1.07–2.68; P=0.03). By contrast, PM10, NO2, O3, and CO did not show significant associations with mortality. Fully adjusted Cox proportional hazards ratios, including all confounders considered in the final models, are detailed in Table S1.
Table 3
| Variables | HR | 95% CI | P value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PM2.5, µg/m3 | 1.72 | 1.04–2.84 | 0.04 |
| ALK | 0.43 | 0.22–0.83 | 0.01 |
| EGFR | 0.41 | 0.24–0.70 | <0.001 |
| PD-L1 TPS ≥1% | 1.18 | 0.77–1.81 | 0.44 |
| PD-L1 TPS ≥50% | 1.99 | 0.89–4.46 | 0.09 |
| PM10, µg/m3 | 1.14 | 0.89–1.44 | 0.28 |
| ALK | 0.40 | 0.21–0.77 | 0.01 |
| EGFR | 0.43 | 0.25–0.74 | <0.001 |
| PD-L1 TPS ≥1% | 1.21 | 0.79–1.85 | 0.37 |
| PD-L1 TPS ≥50% | 2.10 | 0.94–4.72 | 0.06 |
| SO2, µg/m3 | 1.69 | 1.07–2.68 | 0.03 |
| ALK | 0.43 | 0.22–0.83 | 0.01 |
| EGFR | 0.42 | 0.25–0.73 | <0.001 |
| PD-L1 TPS ≥1% | 1.25 | 0.82–1.92 | 0.29 |
| PD-L1 TPS ≥50% | 2.22 | 0.99–4.95 | 0.05 |
| NO2, µg/m3 | 1.18 | 0.91–1.54 | 0.21 |
| ALK | 0.44 | 0.23–0.87 | 0.02 |
| EGFR | 0.46 | 0.27–0.78 | <0.001 |
| PD-L1 TPS ≥1% | 1.16 | 0.75–1.79 | 0.51 |
| PD-L1 TPS ≥50% | 1.98 | 0.87–4.49 | 0.10 |
| O3, µg/m3 | 1.26 | 0.85–1.85 | 0.25 |
| ALK | 0.40 | 0.20–0.76 | 0.01 |
| EGFR | 0.43 | 0.25–0.74 | <0.001 |
| PD-L1 TPS ≥1% | 1.22 | 0.80–1.86 | 0.36 |
| PD-L1 TPS ≥50% | 2.19 | 0.98–4.89 | 0.06 |
| CO, µg/m3 | 1.002 | 0.99–1.02 | 0.79 |
| ALK | 0.42 | 0.21–0.82 | 0.01 |
| EGFR | 0.45 | 0.26–0.76 | 0.01 |
| PD-L1 TPS ≥1% | 1.26 | 0.85–1.92 | 0.28 |
| PD-L1 TPS ≥50% | 2.18 | 0.97–4.90 | 0.05 |
Cox proportional hazards models adjusted by sociodemographic (age, sex), clinical (cancer stage, EGFR status, ALK status, PD-L1 expression, family history of lung cancer, and smoking history), and treatment-related covariates. ALK, anaplastic lymphoma kinase; CI, confidence interval; EGFR, epidermal growth factor receptor; HR, hazard ratio; PD-L1, programmed death-ligand 1; PM, particulate matter; TPS, tumor proportion score.
EGFR mutations and ALK rearrangements were both associated with reduced mortality (HR 0.40–0.46; P<0.05). PD-L1 expression displayed borderline significance in certain models (Table 3).
Discussion
Our study, conducted in a high-altitude urban cohort of Hispanic patients with NSCLC, shows that ambient air pollution is associated with both disease incidence and tumor biology and survival. At the clinical level, pollutant-specific associations with oncogenic drivers such as EGFR and immune biomarkers such as PD-L1 have direct implications for precision oncology: they may refine the selection of patients for targeted therapies, enhance stratification for immunotherapy, and support the development of screening strategies aimed at earlier diagnosis and improved survival (25-28). At the public health level, understanding how environmental exposures shape tumor biology could guide policies on pollution control, promote more equitable access to care, and reduce the economic burden of advanced-stage disease in resource-constrained settings.
The most consistent molecular associations were observed between particulate matter and EGFR mutations. Patients exposed to higher levels of PM2.5 had nearly a 2.5-fold increased probability of harboring EGFR-mutant tumors per 10 µg/m3 increment (OR: 2.49, 95% CI: 1.11–6.41), while PM10 conferred a 1.5-fold increase (OR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.05–2.34). This suggests that fine and coarse particulates may act as selective pressures for EGFR-driven oncogenesis, either by promoting expansion of pre-existing mutant clones or by inducing genomic alterations (29). Previous epidemiologic research has shown that increments of 10 µg/m3 in PM2.5 are associated with 15–27% increases in lung cancer mortality (30), supporting the epidemiological relevance of our findings. Mechanistically, particulate matter induces chronic airway inflammation, oxidative stress, and DNA damage, while impairing DNA repair pathways and altering epigenetic regulation (9-14). Recent experimental data confirm that macrophages exposed to PM2.5 enhance the oncogenic fitness of EGFR-mutant alveolar cells via IL-1β-mediated inflammation (15-18). Beyond this macrophage-driven effect, PM2.5 induces reactive oxygen species that can indirectly activate EGFR, while chronic particulate matter-induced inflammation promotes nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) signaling and the release of proinflammatory cytokines [including IL-1β, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α)], further potentiating EGFR signaling; in parallel, activation of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) may stimulate EGFR through both genomic mechanisms, via transcriptional regulation of EGFR-related genes, and non-genomic mechanisms involving Src-dependent tyrosine kinase signaling, collectively enhancing EGFR-Src crosstalk, tumor proliferation, metastatic potential, and resistance to EGFR-targeted therapies under sustained PM2.5 exposure (31). These results suggest that particulate matter is not a passive initiator but an active promoter of EGFR-driven tumorigenesis.
In contrast, the associations between gaseous pollutants and tumor biology followed different patterns. NO2 exposure was significantly correlated with increased PD-L1 expression, suggesting that chronic traffic-related pollution may contribute to immune escape mechanisms in NSCLC (32,33). Elevated NO2 levels trigger oxidative stress and airway inflammation, disrupt T-cell functionality, and enhance expression of checkpoint molecules, which could partly explain our observations (32-35). This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that air pollution can modulate the tumor immune microenvironment, potentially influencing response to immunotherapy (34,35). While ALK rearrangements showed no robust associations, we did observe a signal with CO exposure. Given CO’s capacity to generate cellular hypoxia and oxidative imbalance (36,37), this association deserves further validation in larger cohorts.
The survival analysis further highlighted the prognostic impact of environmental exposures. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 increased the risk of death by 72% per 10 µg/m3 increment, while SO2 exposure increased mortality risk by 69%. These magnitudes surpass those reported in other regions, where HRs for PM2.5 typically range between 1.14 and 1.30 (29). PM2.5 is a potent inducer of chronic inflammation, angiogenesis, and immune exhaustion, which may accelerate disease progression even after diagnosis (29). SO2, often linked to fossil fuel combustion, generates reactive oxygen species that promote cellular injury and compromise repair mechanisms, yet its role in lung cancer prognosis has been less explored (38,39). Conversely, the presence of EGFR or ALK alterations was significantly associated with reduced mortality (HR 0.40–0.46; P<0.05), aligning with prior evidence that patients harboring targetable driver mutations benefit from improved outcomes when effective therapies are available. PD-L1 expression demonstrated a borderline effect in some models (Table 3), which may reflect heterogeneity in testing or treatment access, and highlights the complex interplay between environmental exposures and tumor immune profiles. These results underscore that pollutants act not only as carcinogens but also as modifiers of survival, while molecular alterations can mitigate prognosis when actionable.
From a public health perspective, the descriptive profile of the cohort provides important context: the majority were women, with a mean age of 66 years, and almost 80% presented with advanced stages (III–IV). This distribution highlights the lack of lung cancer screening programs in Colombia and other Latin American countries, where late presentation remains the norm (5,40,41). Molecular profiling showed EGFR mutations in nearly one-quarter of patients, ALK rearrangements in 12.2%, and PD-L1 expression in over 40%—prevalences aligned with data from never-smokers and Hispanic or Asian cohorts. Importantly, annual exposures to PM2.5 (15.9 µg/m3), PM10 (32.6 µg/m3), and NO2 (28.3 µg/m3) exceeded WHO thresholds, positioning Bogotá as a real-world laboratory where environmental and biological risks converge. More broadly, most urban populations across Latin America are chronically exposed to pollutant concentrations that surpass WHO recommendations (42-45), underscoring that our findings are not isolated to Bogotá but rather reflect a wider environmental reality that may have implications for cancer control in the region.
These patterns must also be interpreted in the context of Bogotá’s unique environmental conditions. At 2,640 meters above sea level, residents live under chronic hypobaric hypoxia, which induces increased tidal volume and ventilation (22). This physiological adaptation facilitates deeper penetration of inhaled particles into distal airways, effectively amplifying the biologically active dose of pollutants compared with equivalent concentrations at sea level (22). The meteorological conditions at high altitudes can also affect the dispersion and deposition of pollutants, thereby uniquely impacting air quality (46). Bogotá is notable for having the greatest intraurban variability in PM2.5 among major Colombian cities (21), a feature that, combined with its altitude, offers a unique opportunity to explore the health effects of air pollution exposure with greater resolution. This combination enhances both exposure to heterogeneity and biological susceptibility. Together, these contextual factors may explain why the HRs and ORs observed in our cohort were higher than those reported in North America, Europe, or Asia, underscoring the importance of studying Latin American populations independently rather than extrapolating data from other regions.
An integrative view of our findings suggests a dual-axis model in which air pollutants both predispose to specific oncogenic events and independently shape survival outcomes. Higher exposures to PM2.5 and PM10 were associated with increased prevalence of EGFR mutations, yet EGFR positivity itself correlated with improved OS, likely reflecting access to effective EGFR-targeted therapies. This paradox illustrates how pollution may increase the burden of EGFR-driven tumors in the population, while advances in precision oncology partially offset their lethality at the individual level (47-49). Conversely, pollutants such as SO2 were associated exclusively with worse survival, independent of mutation status, pointing toward mechanisms of disease acceleration unrelated to genomic drivers. The association of NO2 with elevated PD-L1 expression also raises questions about how chronic inflammation and immune checkpoint upregulation may influence both tumorigenesis and therapeutic responsiveness. Thus, our results highlight a layered relationship where environmental exposures simultaneously determine the likelihood of certain driver events and modulate the natural history of disease after diagnosis. Beyond the clinical implications, this evidence reinforces the need for public health strategies that integrate environmental risk into cancer control policies, with the dual aim of reducing pollutant exposure and improving equity in access to early detection and advanced therapies. Future research should continue to investigate these relationships, incorporating multi-pollutant exposure frameworks and indoor air pollution assessments to more comprehensively characterize the impact of ambient air pollution on lung cancer risk and progression.
Several limitations should be acknowledged. The retrospective design restricts causal inference and may introduce biases. Individual-level exposures such as occupational risks, indoor pollutants, and residential mobility throughout the study period were not captured in the clinical records, which could lead to exposure misclassification despite the use of geospatial modeling. The retrospective nature of the study did not allow us to collect information on built environment data. Moreover, the representativeness of our cohort warrants consideration: as a quaternary referral center in Bogotá, the Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá receives patients with relatively better access to diagnostic and therapeutic resources, which may not fully reflect the experience of the broader Colombian population. At a regional level, socioeconomic and healthcare access disparities across Latin America further limit generalizability. Despite these limitations, this study represents one of the first in Latin America to integrate environmental exposure, molecular alterations, and survival outcomes in NSCLC.
Conclusions
Our study provides one of the first integrative analyses of air pollution and lung cancer biology in a Latin American, high-altitude population. We showed that ambient pollutants are not only carcinogens but also determinants of tumor evolution and patient survival. PM2.5 and PM10 were strongly associated with the presence of EGFR mutations, NO2 with PD-L1 expression, and SO2 with worse OS, outlining a pollutant-specific molecular and prognostic signature. These associations suggest a dual mechanism whereby pollution simultaneously increases the likelihood of oncogenic events and accelerates disease progression, while actionable mutations such as EGFR and ALK can mitigate prognosis when targeted therapies are accessible. The unique setting of Bogotá—marked by chronic hypoxia, intraurban heterogeneity, and exposure above WHO thresholds—amplifies both risk and clinical impact, reinforcing the need to study Hispanic populations independently. Despite inherent limitations, our findings highlight the urgency of integrating environmental exposures into lung cancer risk stratification, prognostic modeling, and public health policy, and provide a foundation for multicenter research aimed at reducing the burden of pollution-related lung cancer in underrepresented regions.
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge the institutional support of the Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá. We extend our appreciation to the Department of Pathology and the Cancer Institute for their collaboration and access to essential clinical and molecular records. We further acknowledge the Universidad de los Andes, Faculty of Medicine, for its academic guidance and support during the development of this study.
Footnote
Reporting Checklist: The authors have completed the STROBE reporting checklist. Available at https://tlcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tlcr-2025-1-1334/rc
Data Sharing Statement: Available at https://tlcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tlcr-2025-1-1334/dss
Peer Review File: Available at https://tlcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tlcr-2025-1-1334/prf
Funding: None.
Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at https://tlcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tlcr-2025-1-1334/coif). L.E.P. declared that currently, I am a stockholder for OxLER and I receive profits from this company; similarly, it has contracts with Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, and Roche in digital consulting, process consulting, and AI development. A.F.C. received that, as previously described, I have received grants from several companies (all listed specifically in this form) for developing an investigation, however, not related to the current project. Similarly, I have consultant roles and have been a speaker for the companies I previously described, and have received earnings from these entities. I also belong to advisory boards both for industries as well as for international oncologic societies. Several different entities have provided support for attending international meetings and congresses. B.W. reported that, as previously described, I have received grants from BMS and AstraZeneca for developing an investigation, however, not related to the current project. Similarly, I have consultant roles with Johnson and Johnson, AstraZeneca, Roche, and Pfizer. I have been a speaker for AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, Roche, and Bayer. The other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
Ethical Statement: The authors are accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved. The study was conducted in accordance with national legislation and international ethical standards, adhering to guidelines from the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments, the Singapore Statement on Research Integrity, and the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS). The study was approved by the Corporate Research Ethics Committee of the Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá (CCEI-17773-2025, May 13, 2025). No informed consent was required due to the minimal risk classification of this research. The Institutional Ethics Committee authorized a waiver for this document.
Open Access Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
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